How to read the odds for beginners

Odds are a set of values that are calculated by the bookmaker to reflect the logical relationship between the participating teams based on their results (goals scored and win-loss results) in a certain period of time. The odds are adjusted regularly on the basis of these values, making them an effective tool for the betting company

The odds are telling you the likelihood of a certain outcome

The odds are subject to change as the pre-match environment is always in flux. Also, in a scientific sense, odds are not an exact value.

Odds in sports are the probability of a team winning a game

Betting agencies first use historical data and team statistics to predict who is likely to win a sporting event.If the odds are low, it means that the payout is likely to be popular, and if the odds are high, it means that the event has a low probability of occurring.

High odds mean high returns

The odds are presented by fractions, not by decimals as we commonly see.Betting on higher odds means higher risk, but higher risk means higher reward. Odds that seem impossible will earn you more objective profits. For example, when Leicester won the Premier League, the UK bookmaker initially offered odds of 1/5000.

The odds you see are telling you the profit per dollar you spend

For example, odds (fractional) of 3/5 means that for every $5 you spend, you get $3 profit.

Understand some gaming concepts

When betting, some technical terms, explained as follows.

Bet (Action): a stake or bet of any kind.

Bookmaker (Bookie): the party who opens the odds or accepts the bet.

Chalk (Chalk): popular odds.

Hedging (Hedging): placing bets on both the high and low odds of a team to reduce losses; (Note: this is the bookies’ propaganda on hedging, in fact, there are more powerful hedges in the mysterious European betting circles)

Line (Line): the current odds in any event. (thecurrentoddsorpointspreadsonthegame.)

Wager (Wager): means the amount of money you pay and the risk you need to take

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How is the market opened? The simplest explanation is that there are many professionals in the gaming company (commonly known as the market maker), such as analysts, risk control managers, financial personnel, etc. …. After combining the data from both sides of the match, an opening figure is decided.

1、 Average Odds

The odds of a bookmaker are certainly one-sided, because the adjustment coefficient of each bookmaker’s odds is set according to the preferences of the bettors covered by the bookmaker, so the value of the odds offered by different geographical bookmakers is different, and then in layman’s terms, the odds offered by the bookmaker are in line with the wishes and views of the majority of people, so that the betting results can be balanced, so the odds of the bookmaker do not represent their real thoughts and views. The odds of the bookies do not represent their real thoughts and views, they have to follow the market rules to operate. If you only use the odds offered by a particular bookmaker for your analysis, then the conclusion you draw will definitely be biased and inaccurate. If the odds offered by more than 20 bookmakers from different regions are averaged, the average odds obtained can “filter out” the “water” odds adjustment coefficients, so that the average odds can express the win, draw and loss rates of both sides in a more objective manner, and the processed data will have a certain degree of authenticity and reference.

2、Odds Trend

After the initial odds are offered by the bookmaker, adjustments and changes will generally be made. This is influenced by some unpredictable factors before the game, such as player injuries, club dynamics, game goals and so on. There is also an imbalance in the betting and the odds need to be adjusted to make the board balanced. The above are normal changes in odds, and then there is the intention of the bookmaker to mislead the players and influence their betting direction, which is an abnormal change in odds. To grasp the trend of odds, you need to observe the change of odds on the spot, and then combine it with the game condition and strength, status and other factors to identify, determine whether the trend of odds is normal, whether the change is reasonable, and recognize the real intention of the bookmaker.

3、Odds Statistics

For a match, the odds offered by different bookmakers will vary. But for a bookmaker, there is a relatively stable odds system over a period of time. The bettors can choose one or two bookmakers’ odds for long-term statistics and compare the odds with all the same odds in the past before each game to find the relatively regular odds and combine them with the probability of the game result as an important reference for judging the game. Of course, in the world of betting, absolute regularity does not exist, otherwise the betting company’s lucrative profits would not be available.

4、 Odds Dispersion

The odds distribution of multiple bookmakers, such as in a game, the bookmakers in a certain result on the odds are more consistent, that is, the difference is very small, then reflect the bookmaker on the results of the odds are more cautious. If the spread on other outcomes is too wide, the bookmaker is being arbitrary with the odds on that outcome. High or low odds are likely to be the bookmaker’s way of luring buyers into betting. In comparison, results with relatively careful odds are more likely to occur, while the opposite is less likely.

5、 Identify Accurate Odds

There are many bookmakers in Europe, and depending on the source of information or familiarity with the game, there will be differences in judgments about the outcome of the game, but these differences should not be too great. If you analyze the odds of each company and find that one company’s odds are significantly different from those of other companies, it often means that the company has a more accurate judgment about the game. Experienced punters will often look at odds from several, or even dozens, of European bookmakers at the same time to find out where the odds differ and which team the bookmaker favors. In addition, each bookmaker usually has a country and league that they are relatively familiar with. It is generally believed that LIBOR has a better understanding of the English Premier League and Serie A, and Wade International is more familiar with La Liga. The bettors can use their own research and verification to find out the relatively accurate odds for each league and different matches for reference.

The above is only a discussion of experience on how to analyze odds. The analysis method is just a tool, the key is to be skilled in using it. A one-sided, unreasonable application of a certain theory or method, or a single belief in one will not be accurate. Furthermore, there are many factors that affect the outcome of a game, and experienced bettors will take into account all the information that can affect the outcome of a game and identify and use it. All in all, the use of odds analysis in football betting can achieve twice the result with half the effort, but of course, luck is also very important to achieve a high hit rate.

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