Probability Is Not The Same As Odds

Odds have been polished for over two hundred years since the Englishman Ogden invented modern odds from the primitive phenomenon of odds. Whether it is sports or US presidential elections, stock market indices or Oscar awards, odds are always in the background. We Chinese lottery players started to get in touch with odds when the football lottery was released in 2001. This is a cognitive process from unfamiliarity to familiarity, from disdain to importance. After countless practical proofs, being able to understand and master the knowledge of odds and apply it to football betting is definitely an effective way to improve the hit rate and save money.

The reference to odds is mainly from the odds data provided by overseas betting companies, that is, we have to find out from the attitude of the betting company towards a game to find the opportunity. The odds then become the cutoff for the majority of players and bookmakers gaming butt, it is both the basis for players to make investment conclusions, but also the means for bookmakers to make profits, but also a direct tool for both the bookmakers to avoid risk and complete profits. Then, the study of odds becomes an important and indispensable part of the football investment process.

The higher the probability the lower the level of return, and vice versa, the higher. However, not all minimum odds will be the final result, only that it has a high probability, and there is a distance between the probability and the result that can be translated and achieved. The following example.

2009 UEFA Champions Cup Winning Odds
Teams Previous Odds Latest Odds
Manchester United 3.50 3.00
Barca 3.50 4.00
Chelsea 6.00 6.00
Liverpool 7.00 7.50
Arsenal 8.50 7.50
Bayern 11.00 17.00

These are the odds of winning the 2008-2009 European Club Champions Cup from William Hill. We can see that the highest is Bayern Munich at 17.00, the lowest is Manchester United at 3.00, and the closest is Barcelona at 4.00. We all know the result, Barcelona beat Manchester United 2-0 to win the title.

Probability is not the same as odds, and probability is not the end result of odds. The odds are a representation of the probability of a professional betting institution by deep analysis of information and the object of the odds. The odds are not only an objective reflection of the object of the odds, but also contain the financial demands of the betting institution (bookmaker) that issued the odds, i.e. the profit model of the betting company. The simplest explanation is that odds are a marketable expression of probability, strength and some other combined factors.

In football, we all know that a game can have three outcomes: win, draw, or lose, and the corresponding odds are also in three forms.

For example: 2009 UEFA Champions Cup Final: Barcelona 2-0 Manchester United
Win Draw Lose
Barcelona 2.80 3.05 2.65 Manchester United

Such a set of data constitutes a kind of odds data in the traditional sense. In this set of data, the low odds of Manchester United did not get the final victory. This point was emphasized earlier, that is, the lower the value of the odds, the greater the probability of such an event occurring. A win for Manchester United is only a higher probability, not necessarily a final victory, and the probability of a draw or a loss exists as well and can happen, only the number and probability of occurrence is smaller.

European odds calculation
The European odds (decimal) are calculated by multiplying your capital by the decimal odds to get your winnings from the bookmakers, provided of course that the team you bet on wins. These also have to be subtracted from the bookmaker’s commission. For example, if you use $100 to buy Juventus to win a match against Roma, Juventus pays 2.20 and Roma pays 1.5. If Juventus wins, you get 100 x 2.20 (including your $100 principal).

Converting European decimal odds to UK fractional odds works like this, just subtract 1 from the decimal odds and convert to fractions. For example: Juventus: 2.2-1=1.2 i.e. 12/10=6/5 Roma: 1.5-1=0.5 i.e. 5/10=1/2.

Converting this to American-style odds is a little more complicated, as the US is used to using “1” for the away team and 2 for the home team. The European decimal odds are converted into American-style odds in this way: Roma: 100 รท (1.5-1) = 200 Juventus: (2.2-1) x 100 = 120 If you want to bet on Roma to win the $100 bonus you must pay the $200 principal; if you want to bet on Juventus you may use the $100 principal to win the $120 bonus.

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