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Invest, don’t gamble
Successful investment is the only way to win, but the average gambler only sees football betting as a form of gambling. Of course, this concept is only suitable for hobby entertainment, but to really win, you need to change your stance on betting. Successful investment requires a systemic approach, such as accurate analysis, a strong sense of responsibility, a wealth of information and the ability to be informed, in order to maximise returns and minimise risk. On the other hand, we understand that betting on football is a completely blind act, waiting for the gods of luck to favour us with a stance of luck, the risks of which can be imagined by everyone. For this reason, I prefer not to use the term ‘gambler’, but rather ‘football betting investor’.
Keys to success
Do not place heavy bets indiscriminately. The best way to decide how much to bet is to set a useful plan first. The best way to bet is the Kelly formula, which means that you can increase your bets when you’re in a good position and reduce them excessively when you’re in a bad position. Adding bets in a panic is a recipe for quicker losses, so think carefully about this. Even if you have an ‘S’ bet (meaning that it looks like a sure win), an inappropriate bet can potentially backfire. Therefore, careful evaluation, coupled with smart use of bets, is the strategy of a successful investor.
While tournaments are set up every day, “S-boards” are not always available, so it is important to be clear: do not spend your bets on markets that you do not have control over, as valuable bets are the cost of winning. A smart betting investor can wait for the major markets to show up every day, but a farmer has to supply odds every day, which gives the average football betting investor the advantage of being able to wait and see what happens. Moreover, betting blindly and fighting back every game is the norm for losers, even if they win 50/50, the bookmakers are able to take the football betting investor’s hard earned money at a profit rate (discount), not to mention the fact that there are no regular winners. Therefore, you should only bet on the right handicap in order to remain on the winning side.
Compare handicaps. The best handicap to choose is the one you want to bet on. The reason for this is simple: sometimes the handicaps of the farmers in a unified tournament vary from one to the other, and in some cases even by one point. As you can imagine, the more you look, the better the result. In addition, nowadays, bookmakers’ handicaps can be copied from each other, so if the main farmer makes a mistake, the other bookmakers, or even all the farmers, can still make mistakes.
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Premise in favour of the bookmaker:
If you evaluate the odds of Team A winning the match at half the odds of a normal bookmaker, the normal odds should be 2.00/+100. As the profit margin (discount) of bookmakers varies, usually 7.5%, the final odds offered to customers are 1.80/-120. With these odds, football betting investors have more than half the odds of Team A winning. The odds are more than half in favour of Team A. Does the final profit margin favour the bookmaker or the football betting investor? This is obvious.
Prerequisites for football betting investors:
The smart bets: focus on the “S” bets. The betting volume is greater than the normal odds.
The market’s intention: the bookmaker’s odds often change depending on the betting bias, at which point the football betting investor can clearly understand and debate the market’s intention.
Counter-attacking at will: Farmers are required to offer competitive odds on a daily basis in their operations. However, football bettors can wait until the market is ready. The S market is in place before the counter bet is placed. Therefore, football betting investors always have the right to take their own decisions.
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Factors affecting the outcome of the race
Research materials for each team:
The strength of each team can be compiled from the composition of its players to determine the grade that each team should have, and not be influenced by sudden indications. Occasional factors should be tolerated unless there is a 100% change in the rating. It is also important to pay attention to the schedule of each team, as easier or harder seasons will directly affect each team’s provisional ranking rather than its true strength.
The elements of home advantage:
Some players’ performances vary depending on the venue of the tournament. The proverbial home dragon and away worm is a testament to the home results of certain teams. Teams with great players at home tend to have better results at home than on the road.
Status of Players:
Teams that show better form tend to have better results, but when the form passes and the answer is the usual, their strength is revealed. So, form is just one of the factors to consider before betting
Don’t underestimate the stance of each player in the match. Most of this happens at the end of the season. When a team is trying to win or retain the title, the players are often at the top of their game and the will of the mid-table players to compete is not always comparable to these teams.
Injuries and Suspensions:
Teams with a lack of reserves need to be aware of this factor as it affects their performance when the main players are not available. Of course, teams with young potential reserves can sometimes shine more brightly than the starters when they have the opportunity to come on and shine.
The past results of eight consecutive wins and ten consecutive losses are only the history of the two teams and are not truly indicative of the outcome of the upcoming matches, as the top players of both teams have changed and the past results are for reference only. Each match is a new test for both teams and new tactics can lead to different results.
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Think of gambling as a war, where the opposite of your bet is your enemy. When you go into battle, you have to go in with the mindset that you will not share the same fate. The most important thing in a football betting war is the chips. Many people think that those with more chips have a good chance of winning and those with less chips do not have much chance of winning. There are ways to gamble with more chips and ways to gamble with less chips. If you have a small amount of chips, you will only counter when you see what you are most likely to win. If your strength is international matches, then you should take advantage of the opportunity to counter when it comes to the World Cup weekends, rather than wasting chips on other matches so that you don’t have the chips to counter when the opportunity arises. A successful bettor will not fight back in an unpredictable game, and will not try to get lucky in an unpredictable battle. It’s not like you can’t win a battle you’re in control of, but a win rate of more than half is enough to protect your capital and make a small profit. If you have limited chips, you need to be able to exercise self-restraint and know your limits. Don’t think about the thrill of gambling, as this will ultimately prevent you from grasping the golden opportunity and will end up giving the farmer your hard-earned money from your day job.
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